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Grade 6 · Developing · 10 minute lesson

Count favorable outcomes under a fair model

Compute a simple probability when elementary outcomes are equally likely.

Lesson 30 of 30 in Grade 6. Take the time you need; the lesson estimate is a guide.

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01 · Read and understand

What you will learn

  • Compute a simple probability when elementary outcomes are equally likely.
  • Explain your method and check what the result means in the stated situation.

Before you start

Fraction and decimal operations, whole-number factors, measurement units, and reading simple tables.

Keep paper nearby. Read the question once for the context, then again to identify what is known and what you need to find.

Start with a question

A fair six-sided die is labeled 1 through 6. What is the probability of a number greater than 4?

Why this math matters

State the random mechanism and fairness assumptions before using a simple counting probability. The worked example shows how to connect the situation, its mathematical representation, and a check on the result.

Hands-on mathematics materials for exploring numbers, shapes, and measurement
Make a representation of your own.Sketch the quantities or relationships in this question before working through the solution. The cover image sets the learning scene; it does not show this problem’s exact values.

Set up the model

A useful answer starts with clear assumptions:

  • Use the units, grouping rules, and reference whole stated in the question.
  • Treat the supplied counts and measurements as exact within the classroom model, unless an estimate or a random outcome is requested.

02 · Work through the example

Follow the reasoning, one step at a time.

Try to predict the next step before reading it. After each calculation, explain why the operation makes sense and how it helps answer the original question.

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The complete worked example, one idea at a time.

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Count favorable outcomes under a fair model

Paused

Question: Start with the question. Paused.

Question

Start with the question

A fair six-sided die is labeled 1 through 6. What is the probability of a number greater than 4?

Before you calculate

Read what is known and what you need to find. Make a prediction before moving to the first calculation.

Starts paused. Play advances through the full text at a reading pace; pause whenever you need more time. Previous, Next, and the phase buttons let you set your own pace. Playback pauses when this walkthrough leaves the screen or you switch tabs.

Your device’s reduced-motion setting keeps each phase still. Manual controls remain available. The full written solution stays below.

  1. Represent the situation

    Possible outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

    Fairness assigns equal probability to each face.

  2. Connect the parts

    Favorable outcomes: 5 and 6

    Two of the six outcomes meet the condition.

  3. State and check the result

    P(greater than 4) = 2/6 = 1/3

    The probability is a model-based proportion, not a promise about the next three rolls.

The result

P(greater than 4) = 2/6 = 1/3

The probability is a model-based proportion, not a promise about the next three rolls.

Common mistakes to catch

  • Favorable divided by total requires equally likely elementary outcomes.
  • An expected proportion is not a guaranteed short-run count.

03 · Practice independently

Try it before revealing the answer.

Use paper or a calculator as needed. Write your units and reasoning, then open the hint or explanation to check your approach.

Practice 1

What is the probability of an even result on the same die?

Show a hint

Count two, four, and six.

Reveal answer and explanation

1/2

Three of six equally likely faces are even.

Practice 2

Does probability 1/3 guarantee exactly one success in three trials?

Show a hint

Random short runs can vary.

Reveal answer and explanation

No

Probability describes likelihood; the realized count in a small set of trials can differ.

Take the idea with you

State the random mechanism and fairness assumptions before using a simple counting probability.

04 · Reflect and continue

Can you explain it in your own words?

Before moving on, explain the main idea without looking at the worked example. Try both practice questions, check your reasoning, and name one mistake you now know how to avoid. Return to a step if you still need support.

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Keep building understanding

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Move forward when the idea feels clear, or revisit the previous lesson to strengthen a connection. Check the prerequisites before starting a new topic.